DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI 9 NEGARA ASEAN TAHUN 2003-2023

Abstract

The primary objective of the research is to analyze the changes in inflation, investment, exports, Human Development Index (HDI), and economic growth, as well as to examine the effects of inflation, investment, exports, and HDI on economic growth in the short run and long run in nine ASEAN countries during the period 2003–2023. The countries examined in this study are Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Timor-Leste, Thailand, and Vietnam. This study uses secondary panel data obtained from the World Development Indicators and the United Nations Development Programme. The analytical methods employed are descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) approach. The results indicate that the variables in the model have a cointegration relationship, suggesting the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. The long-run estimation results show that exports have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while HDI has a negative and significant effect. Meanwhile, inflation and investment do not have a significant effect on economic growth in the long run. In the short run, exports and HDI have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while inflation and investment do not show a significant effect. The negative and significant error correction term indicates an adjustment process toward long-run equilibrium. Overall, exports are found to be the most consistent variable with a significant effect on economic growth in the nine ASEAN countries during the study period.